Non-Cochrane · prognostic · PM42007347
Predictive models for dysphagia in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Fan Shujun, Chen Bingbing, Yin Chuan, et al. · Frontiers in public health · 2026 · PubMed · doi:10.3389/fpubh.2026.1792380
Findings
Population Older adults aged 60 years or above
11 findings
| Dysphagia risk prediction models (best-performing model from each study) | None | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia Hospital, long-term care and community settings | AUC 0.82 [0.77, 0.88] GRADE not reported 7 studies |
| Advanced age | Younger age | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings · Age as categorical variable | OR 2.67 [2.12, 3.38] GRADE not reported 9 studies |
| Smoking history | No smoking history | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings | OR 2.95 [1.94, 4.49] GRADE not reported 3 studies |
| Self-care ability (continuous, per one-point increase) | None | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings · Self-care ability as continuous variable | OR 0.78 [0.63, 0.97] GRADE not reported 3 studies |
| Impaired self-care ability (categorical) | Independent self-care | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings · Self-care ability as categorical variable | OR 4.40 [3.52, 5.51] GRADE not reported 4 studies |
| Polypharmacy | No polypharmacy | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings | OR 4.37 [2.11, 9.06] GRADE not reported 3 studies |
| Frailty (weakness) | No frailty | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings | OR 4.28 [2.28, 8.04] GRADE not reported 4 studies |
| Malnutrition | No malnutrition | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings · Sensitivity analysis excluding Liu et al. 2023 | OR 2.31 [1.66, 3.20] GRADE not reported 3 studies |
| Malnutrition | No malnutrition | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings | OR 1.71 [0.76, 3.84] GRADE not reported 4 studies |
| Cognitive impairment | No cognitive impairment | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings | OR 1.54 [1.19, 2.00] GRADE not reported 3 studies |
| Oral health (as reported) | None | Dysphagia risk Hospital, long-term care and community settings | OR 0.87 [0.84, 0.91] GRADE not reported 4 studies |
Included primary studies 23
Open in Studies| Study | Year | Also included by | Outcomes it informs here | Trial data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chen 2025 DOI:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2025.02.004 | NR | 1 other review | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Cao 2023 DOI:10.19792/j.cnki.1006-6411.2023.35.022 | NR | this review only | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Chen 2024 DOI:10.27674/d.cnki.gcyku.2024.000598 | NR | this review only | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Chen 2024 (long-term care) DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-315x.2024.10.013 | NR | this review only | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Gan 2025 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5253.2025.01.010 | NR | this review only | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia; Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Ge 2021 DOI:10.19893/j.cnki.ydyxb.2021-0005 | NR | this review only | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia; Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Lin 2025 Construction of risk prediction model for dysphagia in hospitalized elderly patients with frailty DOI:10.3389/fmed.2025.1659438 | 2025 | this review only | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Lin 2025 Construction of risk prediction model for dysphagia in hospitalized elderly patients with frailty. PMID:40893896 | 2025 | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
| Liu 2023 Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting dysphagia in long-term care facility residents DOI:10.1007/s40520-023-02413-y | 2023 | this review only | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia; Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Liu 2023 Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting dysphagia in long-term care facility residents. PMID:37148466 | 2023 | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
| Liu 2025 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2025.06.003 | NR | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
| Martin-Martinez 2023 A Systematic and Universal Artificial Intelligence Screening Method for Oropharyngeal Dysphagia: Improving Diagnosis Through Risk Management DOI:10.1007/s00455-022-10547-w | 2022 | this review only | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia | not extracted yet |
| Martin-Martinez 2023 A Systematic and Universal Artificial Intelligence Screening Method for Oropharyngeal Dysphagia: Improving Diagnosis Through Risk… PMID:36576585 | 2023 | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
| Mattavelli 2023 Early predictors of dysphagia in ischaemic stroke patients DOI:10.1111/ene.15846 | 2023 | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
| Mattavelli 2023 Early predictors of dysphagia in ischaemic stroke patients. PMID:37159487 | 2023 | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
| Peng 2025 DOI:10.13406/j.cnki.cyxb.003733 | NR | this review only | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Qiu 2025 Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for Dysphagia in Community-Dwelling Older Adults DOI:10.1177/10998004241290727 | 2024 | this review only | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia; Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Wang 2024 Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model to Predict Postextubation Dysphagia in Elderly Patients After Endotracheal… DOI:10.1007/s00455-023-10594-x | 2023 | this review only | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia; Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Wang 2024 Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model to Predict Postextubation Dysphagia in Elderly Patients After Endotracheal… PMID:37272948 | 2024 | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
| Xie 2023 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-1826.2023.10.017 | NR | this review only | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Yan 2025 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-9198.2025.05.018 | NR | this review only | Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Yu 2022 A risk prediction model for dysphagia in older patients: a single-center prospective study DOI:10.1016/j.gerinurse.2021.12.013 | 2022 | this review only | Discrimination (AUC) for dysphagia; Dysphagia risk | not extracted yet |
| Yu 2022 A risk prediction model for dysphagia in older patients: a single-center prospective study. PMID:35007867 | 2022 | this review only | not stated | not extracted yet |
Overlap with other reviews
Reviews that include the same primary studies are not independent evidence. Shared counts match studies by PMID, DOI or NCT, and otherwise by author and year (a probable match). Only the non-Cochrane dental reviews have study lists, so overlap with Cochrane reviews is not counted yet.
| Review | Shared studies | Jaccard |
|---|---|---|
| The prevalence and associated factors of oral frailty in older Chinese patients with chronic conditions: a systematic review and… (2026) | 1 | 0.03 |
Review question
| Element | Planned (methods) | Found (results) |
|---|---|---|
| Population | Older adults aged 60 years or above | Older adults in hospital (n=13), long-term care facilities (n=3), community (n=1); 15 studies from China, 1 Spain, 1 Italy |
| Intervention | Multivariable dysphagia risk prediction models (logistic regression, Cox regression, machine learning) reporting at least one performance metric | 30 dysphagia risk prediction models from 17 studies (2 with external validation) |
| Comparison | Not specified | Not specified |
| Outcomes | Dysphagia; model discrimination (AUC), calibration, sensitivity, specificity; common predictors (OR) | Dysphagia by Kubota water swallowing test (n=10), EAT-10 (n=3), SSA (n=3), V-VST (n=1), FOIS (n=1); pooled AUC (n=7) and OR for 8 common predictors |
| Study designs | Prospective or retrospective cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional studies | Retrospective cohort, cross-sectional, case-control and 1 prospective cohort studies (n=17) |
| Timing | Database inception to 15 September 2025 | Studies published 2021 to 2025 |