Findings

What do systematic reviews say?

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Evidence found and GRADE certainty

10 questions · 203 findings · 1 reviews · All outcomes

No studies found 1 · 0.5%GRADE not reported 202 · 99.5%Very low 0 · 0%Low 0 · 0%Moderate 0 · 0%High 0 · 0%

Multivariable caries prediction model vs Additional prediction model(s)

Coronal caries increment · Individuals of all ages

The review reported this model performance without meta-analysis.

168 findings from 1 review
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Multivariable caries prediction model vs Additional prediction model(s)

Root caries increment · Individuals of all ages

The review reported this model performance without meta-analysis.

22 findings from 1 review
Show 19 more findings

Multivariable caries prediction model vs Additional prediction model(s)

Coronal and/or root caries increment · Individuals of all ages

The review reported this model performance without meta-analysis.

2 findings from 1 review

Cariogram multivariable caries-risk model (including modified/reduced-predictor versions) vs Alternative prediction model(s) within the same study, or no formal comparator (models compared descriptively; no between-model statistical test)

Predictive performance of the Cariogram for caries increment (positive likelihood ratio, LR+) · Children/adolescents (coronal caries) and older adults (root caries); populations from areas with varying caries risk

Modified Cariogram models showed modest positive likelihood ratios (LR+ ~1.1-3.8) for predicting caries increment, generally below the useful threshold; no pooled estimate; ungraded.

1 finding from 1 review
  • Multivariable prediction models of caries increment: a systematic review and critical appraisal. 2023 All outcomes
    Follow-up >=1 year (included studies 1-5 years) · Oral health care; children/adolescents and older adults; multiple countries · Model validation studies
    Six validation studies (5 coronal, 1 root) evaluated modified Cariogram models (not the original model per se). Review-stated LR+ range 1.1-3.8 (with one exception). LR+ was not substantially changed by excluding the…
    6 studies
    GRADE not reported

Cariogram multivariable caries-risk model (including modified/reduced-predictor versions) vs Alternative prediction model(s) within the same study, or no formal comparator (models compared descriptively; no between-model statistical test)

Predictive performance of the Cariogram for caries increment (negative likelihood ratio, LR-) · Children/adolescents (coronal caries) and older adults (root caries); populations from areas with varying caries risk

Modified Cariogram models showed negative likelihood ratios of about 0.5-0.61, above the useful rule-out threshold; no pooled estimate; ungraded.

1 finding from 1 review
  • Multivariable prediction models of caries increment: a systematic review and critical appraisal. 2023 All outcomes
    Follow-up >=1 year (included studies 1-5 years) · Oral health care; children/adolescents and older adults; multiple countries · Model validation studies
    Review-stated LR- range 0.5-0.61 across the Cariogram validation models (with one exception). Model performance was largely unaffected by removing the predictors mutans streptococci in saliva, saliva secretion and…
    6 studies
    GRADE not reported

Original development of CAMBRA (Caries Management by Risk Assessment) or CAT (Caries-risk Assessment Tool) multivariable models vs Not applicable

Model development with reported performance measures (per CHARMS) · Individuals of any age at risk of caries increment

No original CAMBRA or CAT model-development studies reporting performance measures according to CHARMS were found (evidence gap); these tools appeared only as validated models within other studies.

1 finding from 1 review

Multivariable caries prediction model vs Alternative prediction model(s) within the same study, or no formal comparator (models compared descriptively; no between-model statistical test)

Predictive performance for root caries increment (negative likelihood ratio, LR-) · Older adults (aged 52-95; mean 52-73) at risk of root caries increment

The single root-caries validation study (Hayes 2017) showed LR- of 0.34-0.41, above the useful rule-out threshold; no pooled estimate; ungraded.

2 findings from 1 review

Multivariable caries prediction model vs Alternative prediction model(s) within the same study, or no formal comparator (models compared descriptively; no between-model statistical test)

Predictive performance for root caries increment (positive likelihood ratio, LR+) · Older adults (aged 52-95; mean 52-73) at risk of root caries increment

Developmental root-caries prediction models were generally modest, except Sanchez-Garcia 2011 (LR+ 7.09) which reached the useful threshold; no pooled estimate; ungraded.

2 findings from 1 review

Multivariable caries prediction model vs Alternative prediction model(s) within the same study, or no formal comparator (models compared descriptively; no between-model statistical test)

Predictive performance for coronal caries increment (negative likelihood ratio, LR-) · Children and adolescents (aged 2-19) at risk of coronal caries increment (caries onset or progression)

Some developmental coronal-caries models achieved useful negative likelihood ratios (LR-<=0.20), but performance varied widely; no pooled estimate; ungraded.

2 findings from 1 review
  • Multivariable prediction models of caries increment: a systematic review and critical appraisal. 2023 All outcomes
    Follow-up >=1 year (included studies 1-5 years) · Oral health care; children/adolescents; no geographical restriction · Model development studies
    No meta-analysis. Per-model LR- (Table 2) for the 8 development studies ranged roughly 0.11-0.94 (e.g. Angulo 0.94, Demers 0.14-0.40, Gao 2010 0.11-0.30). Overall across all 66 models LR- ranged 0.0-1.1; LR-<=0.20…
    8 studies
    GRADE not reported
  • Multivariable prediction models of caries increment: a systematic review and critical appraisal. 2023 All outcomes
    Follow-up >=1 year (included studies 1-5 years) · Oral health care; children/adolescents; no geographical restriction · Model validation studies
    No meta-analysis. Per-model LR- (Table 2) across the 9 validation studies ranged from about 0.14 to 1.13 (e.g. Gao 2013 NUS-CRA 0.26, CAMBRA 0.14-0.31, CAT up to ~1.10; Campus 0.20; Pang 2020 low-risk 1.13). Overall…
    9 studies
    GRADE not reported

Multivariable caries prediction model vs Alternative prediction model(s) within the same study, or no formal comparator (models compared descriptively; no between-model statistical test)

Predictive performance for coronal caries increment (positive likelihood ratio, LR+) · Children and adolescents (aged 2-19) at risk of coronal caries increment (caries onset or progression)

Most externally validated coronal-caries models showed modest LR+ (<5); only Campus 2012 and Gao 2013 NUS-CRA reached the useful threshold; no pooled estimate; ungraded.

2 findings from 1 review
  • Multivariable prediction models of caries increment: a systematic review and critical appraisal. 2023 All outcomes
    Follow-up >=1 year (included studies 1-5 years) · Oral health care; children/adolescents; no geographical restriction · Model validation studies
    No meta-analysis. Per-model LR+ (Table 2) across the 9 validation studies (31 coronal models) ranged roughly 0.78-5.53 (e.g. Beck 1.62-3.00, Christian/CAMBRA 1.09-1.14, Gao 2013 CAT ~1.03 to NUS-CRA 5.31, Campus 5.53,…
    9 studies
    GRADE not reported
  • Multivariable prediction models of caries increment: a systematic review and critical appraisal. 2023 All outcomes
    Follow-up >=1 year (included studies 1-5 years) · Oral health care; children/adolescents; no geographical restriction (11 countries across all studies) · Model development studies
    No meta-analysis (heterogeneity precluded pooling); performance given per model as LR+ recalculated by the review authors (Table 2). Across the 8 development studies (23 coronal models) LR+ spanned roughly 1.31-10.26…
    8 studies
    GRADE not reported